Troy Vs Kentucky, NCAAB Tournament Prediction, Free Pick

Troy Trojans - Kentucky Wildcats 7:10 PM EST 3-21-25

The 14th-seeded Troy Trojans (23-10) take on the third-seeded Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) in a first-round Midwest Region matchup of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s break down the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook and provide expert predictions for this showdown.

Troy’s Road to the Big Dance Troy returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017 after an impressive Sun Belt campaign. The Trojans finished 13-5 in conference play, earning a share of first place in a four-way tie. They enter the tournament on a six-game win streak, clinching their spot with a 94-81 win over Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Tournament final. Senior guard Tayton Conerway leads the team in points (14.3), assists (4.8), and steals (2.9) per game. Historically, Troy is 0-2 in NCAA Tournament appearances, with their first trip dating back to 2003.

Kentucky’s Tournament Outlook Ranked No. 21 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, Kentucky makes its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, marking the first under head coach Mark Pope. The Wildcats finished 10-8 in SEC play, tying for sixth place. They went 1-1 in the SEC Tournament, suffering a tough 99-70 loss to Alabama in the semifinals. Junior guard Otega Oweh leads the team in scoring at 16.2 PPG. Despite its storied history, Kentucky hasn’t advanced past the first weekend of the tournament since 2019.

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Are the Wildcats Undervalued? Kentucky enters this matchup as an 11.5-point favorite, which seems low compared to the other No. 3 seeds—Wisconsin (-17), Texas Tech (-15.5), and Iowa State (-14). This line suggests oddsmakers view Kentucky as the most vulnerable of the group. The Wildcats have been inconsistent, capable of beating top-tier teams like Florida while also suffering losses to mid-tier squads like Texas. However, their talent is undeniable—they rank fourth in the nation in scoring at 85.3 PPG, with six players averaging double figures. Guard Koby Brea is a lethal shooter from beyond the arc, hitting 43.9% from deep, ranking ninth nationally.

Can Troy Keep Up? Troy boasts a solid defense, holding opponents to 65.4 PPG, but they’ve struggled against stronger competition—Oregon put up 82 points on them earlier this season. Offensively, the Trojans rank sixth in the Sun Belt at 73.9 PPG, making it tough to keep pace with a high-powered Kentucky squad.

Prediction Kentucky’s firepower should be too much for Troy to handle. Expect the Wildcats to take control and pull away in dominant fashion.

FREE PICK- KENTUCKY-11.5 10*

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